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Executive Summary—Levelized Cost of Storage Version 9.0
(1)
The results of our Levelized Cost of Storage (“LCOS”) analysis reinforce what we observe across the Power, Energy & Infrastructure Industry—energy
storage system (“ESS”) applications are becoming more valuable, well understood and, by extension, widespread as grid operators begin adopting
methodologies to value these resources leading to increased transaction activity and infrastructure classification for the ESS asset class. Key
takeaways from Version 9.0 of Lazard’s LCOS include:
1. Increased LCOS Variability
While we saw incremental declines in the low end LCOS as compared to last year’s analysis, the high end increased more noticeably, resulting in a wider range of LCOS
outcomes across the operational parameters analyzed. The decline on the low end was, in part, driven by a noticeable decline in cell prices resulting from increased
manufacturing capacity in China and decreased mineral pricing. However, this was offset by significant increases in engineering, procurement and construction (“EPC”)
pricing driven, in part, by high demand, increased timeline scrutiny, skilled labor shortages and prevailing wage requirements. Also notable is the increased impact of
economies of scale benefits in procurement, mirroring the observations we have seen in the LCOE in recent years.
2. The Power of the IRA Is Clear
Despite the significant increases in wholesale pricing for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide observed from 2022 to 2023, the IRA’s grant of ITC eligibility for
standalone ESS assets kept LCOS v8.0 values relatively neutral as compared to LCOS v7.0. One year later, for this year’s LCOS v9.0, ITC implementation, including the
application of energy community adders, is fully underway and the impacts are clear. The ITC, along with lower cell pricing and technology improvements, is leading to an
increasing trend of oversizing battery capacity to offset future degradation and useful life considerations, which is not only extending useful life expectations but is also
increasing residual value and overall project returns. While the ITC and energy community adder are prevalent, the domestic content adder remains uncertain,
notwithstanding the various domestic manufacturing announcements. The lack of clarity related to qualifying for local content is leading to longer lead times and higher
contingencies. Adding to this overall complexity is the recently proposed increase of Section 301 import tariffs on lithium-ion batteries, which many believe will lead to
increased domestic battery supply but with uncertain costs results.
3. Lithium-Ion Batteries Remain Dominant
Lithium-ion batteries remain the most cost competitive short-term (i.e., 2 – 4-hour) storage technology, given, among other things, a mature supply chain and global
market demand. Lithium-ion, however, is not without its challenges. For example, safety remains a concern for utilities and commercial & industrial owners, particularly in
urban areas, and longer-duration lithium-ion use cases can have challenging economic profiles. As such, industry participants have started progressing non-lithium-based
technology solutions, including for longer-duration use cases and applications. Such technologies are targeting new market segments, including industrial applications,
data center deployments and ultra-long duration applications in regions with high penetration of intermittent renewable energy. However, the development of long duration
energy storage still requires clear demonstration of the commercial operation of these technologies, market maturation (including the development of stronger incentives
for long duration projects that could capture capacity revenues in merchant and bilateral markets) and manufacturing scale to realize (long-promised) cost reductions, all
resulting in greater willingness of insurance and financing participants to underwrite these projects.
(1) This analysis has been compiled using U.S.-focused data.
I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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