Demographic Research: Volume 30, Article 61
http://www.demographic-research.org 1671
In other words, our findings indicated that when the level of stratification in an
educational system is low, parental divorce tends to reduce inequality of educational
opportunities. It therefore seems that the characteristics of the educational system, and
particularly the extent of early tracking, play key roles in mediating the consequences of
parental breakup. On the other hand, our empirical evidence did not confirm the
institutionalization hypothesis, which states that the adverse consequences of divorce
are smaller in societies in which divorce rates are high. While this idea may be intuitive,
our results did not support the assumption that a high degree of diffusion of divorce
would, via diminished social stigma, lead to lower penalties for divorce. Our models
yielded the opposite finding, suggesting that the divorce penalty might be larger in
countries and cohorts in which divorce is more diffused (although the respective
coefficient is only marginally significant). This finding may reflect the fact that in the
initial period after divorce is legalized in a given context, it is mostly used by social
elites who may well be capable of protecting their offspring from any negative
repercussions.
In order to compare various countries in this study, we had to forego the option of
directly testing the micro mechanism driving the heterogeneity in divorce penalty by
social background. Thus, the main limitation of this study is that we were only able to
consider the educational level of the parent (the mother in the large majority of the
cases) co-residing with the child after divorce. We therefore have not been able to
investigate directly the mechanisms of economic and occupational downward mobility
that may contribute to the large divorce penalty observed for the children of highly
educated single parents.
Similarly, we did not have sufficient data to control for further differences between
children of divorced parents and children from intact families, which may induce
selection effects (Bhrolcháin 2001; Kim 2011; Steele, Sigle-Rushton, and Kravdal
2009). Of major relevance for our conclusions is the fact that, in recent years, a negative
educational gradient in the risk of divorce has been documented in the majority of
countries (Amato and James 2010; Lyngstad and Jalovaara 2010). Divorcing parents
with high and low levels of education might therefore differ in terms of unobserved
factors that could affect the children's educational attainment. If, for instance, highly
educated parents are less likely to divorce and do so only when there is a very high
degree of conflict in the relationship, then their children might be selected on negative
unobserved characteristics that might also explain their larger penalty in educational
attainment. To complicate matters further, the educational gradient has changed over
time from positive to negative, making it difficult to predict the implications for the
potential biases due to selection into divorce in a cross-cohort study like this one
(Bernardi and Martínez Pastor 2011; Härkönen and Dronkers 2006; Matysiak, Styrc,
and Vignoli 2011).